Seven years ago, it took just eight words to energize a Labour conference and to show Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. While not exactly soaring oratory, the words met with wild cheering as most of the hall stood for an impromptu ovation.
As the commotion died down, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.
In that deeply polarized period of 2018, straying from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as issuing a challenge to Jeremy Corbyn, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he would later replace.
The Evolution in Position & Closed Issues
In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 national vote. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.
Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, even if polling evidence indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.
Pressure Building on the EU
However, it’s now Starmer is now to be an embattled Labour leader. While Europe is no longer the central crisis of British politics, the cap which was firmly shut since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.
Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric regarding the damage that leaving the EU has caused to Britain's economic standing. It’s a useful stick to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses how leaving the EU was his primary goal and is still his only real achievement.
And yet, the extent of the economic harm, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, towers over the minor adjustments thus far implemented by the government. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.
Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals
Rachel Reeves is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth youth mobility scheme by which youths can move between the UK and the EU for work or study.
The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, recently voted for a Liberal Democrat motion on customs union membership.
Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending every cabinet meeting, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. One idea involves declaring the commencement of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.
Starmer's Deep-Seated Scepticism
Yet, Starmer has lately been damping it all down on the idea by warning rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he views as key accomplishments of his premiership.
It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.
- Firstly, he thinks any customs union agreement is now much harder as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations across a range of policy areas, including the environment.
- Second, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced British officials that former EU partners are less interested in offering favorable terms to the UK than in demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
- Lastly, the new US national security strategy, praised by Moscow, is seen by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from the EU.
A Bizarre Strategy & Strategic Considerations
This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of Muslim migration. It includes only one reference of the UK, placed beside a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.
But, far from deciding that this renders the US an undependable ally, the government is worried that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.
Succession Chatter & The Echo from the Past
All of which returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt to become leader but simply an attempt to preserve the possibility of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. In fact, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.
Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, who just about everyone assumes would be a candidate in any leadership election, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.
Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race for the top job, insist she won’t discuss her position on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.
The Clear Risk and A Wise Memory
The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters reside.
It would be prudent for Starmer to recall the impact just a few words had on his career in 2018. There are options for a big offer on Europe which the PM should not “rule out”; he should explore them himself, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.
