Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
