A mere eight weeks in the past when the young forward found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery berated him over missing a pass in behind. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained if Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason for Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. As the England international swept in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit just three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to address. History, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, even as the victories have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team posted an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side which has put together ten consecutive victories, they look weirdly vulnerable – but at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping Rogers to save the day with two crisp finishes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened against United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the post from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opponents had more shots and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they will encounter in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists a different scenario whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the hero stood in front of the North End after the match leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
